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World Health Organization Raises Pandemic Alert Level Due to Swine Flu Outbreak

Mexico & Central America, Natural Disasters — on April 28, 2009 1:07 pm

Virus closeup With swine flu spreading around the globe, the World Health Organization (WHO) decided Monday to raise its pandemic alert level a notch, from level three to four. The highest level possible is six.

However, the agency stopped short of recommending full-scale border closures or travel bans because it considers them ineffective.

WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl said that screening people at borders and airports can miss those who are not symptomatic yet, while completely sealing Mexico’s borders would be economically disastrous.

Many countries such as France, Britain, the Netherlands, Italy, Hong Kong, and the Philippines have advised their citizens to avoid non-essential travel to Mexico. Many other nations, including the U.S., are screening passengers returning from trips to the Mexico and other affected countries.

Blood cells So what should you do if you’ve got long-held vacation plans that will take you to Mexico? Should you cancel? Or go anyway and encase yourself in a biohazard suit? Here are some recommendations:

First, if you’re elderly or have chronic health issues that could be exacerbated by the flu, it’s probably best not to travel until the epidemic has run its course. The good news is that many airlines are offering to change airline tickets without charging the usual fees, and many tour operators are postponing trips without penalizing participants.

If you’re heading to Mexico on a cruise, some cruise lines including Carnival, Holland America, and Fred Olsen have decided to skip Mexican ports such as Ensenada, Cozumel and Mazatlan. Currently, there is no word on if the cruise lines will waive cancellation fees for upcoming trips.

Related links on PeterGreenberg.com:

Check out what Peter had to say about swine flu and travel on CNN:

The U.S. State Department has issued an alert advising against all non-essential travel to Mexico, but it’s still up to the individual passenger whether or not you want to risk it.

If you do decide to venture out, bear in mind that there have been virtually no reported cases of the bug in popular resort areas like Cancun and Puerto Vallarta, but Mexico City has basically been shut down in light of the epidemic.

There are a few common sense things you can do to protect yourself when you’re traveling, whether it be to Mexico or Mongolia. Bugs spread quickly in planes, hotels and other places where people congregate, so here’s what you need to know:

London Ambulance Avoid touching germy areas like armrests or remote controls then touching your eyes, mouth or nose. Companies like Travel Kleen make reusable headrest covers for use on planes to protect the seatback headrest, and Zaplex makes a remote control covers that is infused with an antibacterial agent.

Wash your hands often with hot soapy water, and bring hand sanitizer with you everywhere. Keep yourself hydrated by drinking lots of water, and use a saline nasal spray on planes to keep your nasal passage from drying out (which encourages the spread of infection).

Experts are divided on the effectiveness of face masks.

Face Mask The CDC says that the fibers are not small enough to prevent transfer of airborne flu viruses, but they can provide at least a temporary barrier if a sick person sneezes on you. So if you’re sitting within two rows of a sick person on a plane, it might be a good idea.

Masks are most effective for those who are already sick, as they can limit the spray of infectious droplets when the sick person coughs or sneezes. However, their effect for healthy people is primarily psychological—so if they make you feel safer, then wear one.

Ultimately, we don’t have much control over when, how or where we’ll get sick, which is why travel insurance was invented. If your trip cost more than a few hundred dollars, it’s generally a wise idea to buy a policy.

Some insurance will let you cancel your trip for any reason before you depart, while others stipulate that you must be ill or have some other crisis. Some policies also cover emergency medical bills if you get sick while you already on vacation. Some good resources for comparing coverage and prices of different plans are http://insuremytrip.com and http://tripinsurancestore.com.

By Karen Elowitt for PeterGreenberg.com.

Related links: Washington Post, New York Times, USA Today, State Department Travel Alert, CruiseCritic.com

Related links on PeterGreenberg.com:

Bo Thompson

In 1918:

In large U.S cities, more than 10,000 deaths per week were attributed to the virus. It is estimated that as many as 50% of the population was infected, and ~1% died. To compare, in “normal” (interpandemic) years, it is estimated that between 10-20% of the population is infected, with a .008% mortality.

The fact the current ‘swine flu’ has shown to be contagious is alarming. So far the virus has shown to have a 6% to 6.3% mortality rate. It may not seem like much, but please consider the following: The deadly influenza panic in 1918 had a mortality rate of under 1%.

This virus went on to kill tens of thousands of healthy people a day in large cities and up to 100 million people world wide.

Viruses, like this strain of swine flu, kill their host by over-stimulating active immune systems that are robust and healthy. That is why the victims in Mexico were between the ages of 20 and 45.

Some have said that no one in the United States have died from the virus, so we need not worry. Experts say it is only a matter of time. The virus is not prevalent enough to reach statistical significance in the United States, with only a handful of confirmed cases. 93.7% of all Mexicans with the virus recovered.

More cause for worry: The 1918 virus started off ‘mild’ before it mutated into a raging storm. It also does not mean we will see millions of deaths. It is too early to draw sweeping conclusions. Nevertheless, there is potential for a disastrous pandemic. If 50% of Americans catch this flu in the next two years, and the mortality rate stays at 6.3%, we would witness 20+ million deaths.

This strain of virus is more potent and more deadly than the virus that hammered the world in 1918 and 1919. Viruses come in waves. There are striking similarities to this virus and the virus that killed up to 100 million people in 1918. The first wave is historically more mild than the later waves.

In addition to this virus becoming more severe, it is mutating faster than previous virus that we have seen. In addition, this virus is nothing like we have ever seen before because it combines features from viruses natural in different parts of the globe. We are in uncharted territory.

If it follows the same path as the 1918 flu, we will see very damaging results. However, we must remember we are a global society now and the virus can spread quicker than we have ever witnessed in history. This is very concerning especially since the drugs we have now seem resistant.

While there have been no deaths in America, it is shadowed by the fact the common variable among the deaths seem to be age. While most American cases have involved the very young and very old (under 10 and over 50) the Mexican cases that ended fatally involved the robust and healthy (over 20 and under 45).

This virus kills the host by over-stimulating the immune system. The term that is used when the immune system over reacts is called a Cytokine Storm. It is usually fatal. During this â€œStormâ€ over 150 inflammatory mediators are released. This would account for the high mortality rate in 1918-19.

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Ryan

I tend not to dwell too much on this stuff. The more that you think about disease the more likely it is to enter your life.

Unless someone is a health care professional it really makes no sense to worry all that much over something which can’t affect you if you don’t place your attention on it.

Ryan